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Weatherburn, Don --- "What Does Research Tell Us about the Impact of Recent Liquor Licence Restrictions on Violence in New South Wales?" [2016] CICrimJust 15; (2016) 28(1) Current Issues in Criminal Justice 97


Forum Feature

What Does Research Tell Us about the Impact of

Recent Liquor Licence Restrictions on Violence in

New South Wales?

Don Weatherburn[*]

Abstract

Following the success of restrictions on liquor licensing in curbing violence in Newcastle, successive New South Wales governments have relied heavily on liquor licensing controls to reduce alcohol-related violence. Research to date suggests that the collective impact of these controls has been substantial. At this stage, however, little is known about the mechanism or mechanisms through which changing liquor licensing controls have reduced violence. The article examines the little research conducted regarding the impact of liquor licensing reforms (popularly known as the ‘lockout laws’) on the night-time economy in parts of Sydney and identifies three key empirical issues yet to be addressed.

Keywords: violence – assault – lockout law – liquor licensing – displacement – time series

Introduction

The year 2008 marked a turning point in New South Wales (‘NSW’) government approaches to dealing with alcohol-related violence. Prior to that point, little consideration had been given to the idea of imposing targeted restrictions on licensed premises in order to reduce alcohol-related violence. From 2008 onwards, liquor licensing restrictions (and associated enforcement activity) became the main means by which successive NSW governments endeavoured to bring the problem of alcohol-related violence under control. Roth and Angus (2015) provide a detailed summary of all the changes to liquor licensing policy that have taken place since 2008. The main changes are:

• July 2008: Restrictions on 14 out of 15 licensed premises in Newcastle

• October 2008: Freeze on new 24-hour liquor licenses, special restrictions on top 48 licensed premises (in terms of assault)

• June 2009: 12-month freeze on new liquor licences in Kings Cross, the Oxford/Darlinghurst precinct and parts of the southern central business district (‘CBD’)

• March 2010: Director General of Communities NSW given new powers to regulate trading hours for licensed premises

• October 2011: Introduction of ‘three strikes’ disciplinary scheme for licensed premises

• August 2012: Imposition of special trading restrictions on licensed premises in Kings Cross

• January 2014: Mandatory minimum penalties for assault, special restrictions on licensed premises in the Sydney and Kings Cross entertainment precincts.

This article briefly summarises the research that has been conducted into the effects of these changes on trends in assault. It concludes by identifying three key empirical issues that remain to be addressed.

Moffatt, Mason, Borzycki and Weatherburn (2009)

On 11 March 2008, following a number of requests from the public and the media, the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (‘BOCSAR’) published a ranked list of the top 100 licensed premises in terms of assaults occurring on their premises between January and September 2007. On 30 October 2008, the then NSW Premier, Nathan Rees, announced the imposition of licence restrictions on the top 48 licensed premises on BOCSAR’s top 100 list. The restrictions placed on the top 48 list came into force on 1 December 2008 and included: mandatory 2 am lockouts; cessation of alcohol service 30 minutes before closing time; plastic or polycarbonate glasses for beer service after midnight; no ‘shots’; and drink purchase limits after midnight.

Moffatt et al (2009) conducted a time series analysis of changes in reported levels of assault before and after the changes on: (a) the top 48 licensed premises; (b) the top 100 licensed premises; and (c) unranked licensed premises (that is, those below the top 100). They found a significant reduction in assaults in both the top 48 and the top 100 licensed premises, but no change in the number of assaults recorded on the unranked licensed premises. A subsequent follow-up study by Moffatt and Weatherburn (2011) confirmed a reduction in assaults on licensed premises. The study also found evidence of a reduction on assaults in outdoor/public places, but no reduction in assaults on residential or business/commercial premises.

The new liquor licensing laws created a strong incentive for licensed premises not to report assaults to police. As a check on whether staff associated with the targeted licensed premises had become less willing to report assaults to police, Moffatt et al (2009) examined the trend in the percentage of assaults on licensed premises reported to police by staff in the top 100 and unranked licensed premises. They found no reduction in the percentage of assaults reports emanating from staff in either group. Further confirmation of the lack of any change in the willingness of staff on licensed premises to report assaults to police was later obtained by Snowball and Spratley (2013) and by Agnew-Pauley (2013).

Jones, Kypri, Moffatt, Borzycki and Price (2009)

In March 2008, the NSW Liquor Administration Board imposed unprecedented restrictions on a number of licensed premises operating in the Newcastle CBD. The restrictions included: a 1 am lockout and 3 am closure; limits on the sale of certain types of alcohol beverages; and a requirement to cease selling alcohol 30 minutes before closing. Jones et al (2009) evaluated the reforms by comparing trends in assault in Newcastle before and after the restrictions were imposed with trends in assault in Hamilton, a nearby suburb where no restrictions were imposed. After adjusting for any pre-existing trend, the study revealed a substantial reduction in assaults in Newcastle following the imposition of the restrictions, but no change in the number of reported assaults in Hamilton. A subsequent study by Kypri, McElduff and Miller (2014) showed that the reduction continued over the 3.5 years following the reforms.

Donnelly (2012)

Much of the early debate surrounding liquor licensing law in NSW concerned the failure of licensed premises to enforce the law in relation to responsible service of alcohol. Donnelly (2012) compared the results of surveys of drinkers at licensed premises conducted in 2002, 2006 and 2011 and designed to measure respondents’ experience of responsible service of alcohol (‘RSA’). The percentage of respondents who reported showing at least one sign of intoxication at licensed premises decreased from 2006 to 2011 (from 56 per cent to 51 per cent). The overall provision of RSA to those who reported any signs of intoxication increased from 2002 to 2011 (from 10 per cent in 2002 to 15 per cent in 2006 to 19 per cent in 2011). There was no change in the overall provision of RSA to those who reported three or more signs of intoxication between 2006 and 2011. However, particular RSA practices appear to have become more stringent among more intoxicated patrons (4 per cent were asked to leave the premises in 2006, compared with 12 per cent in 2011). Non-intoxicated patrons also reported that intoxicated patrons were asked to leave the licensed premises more often over this time period.

Menéndez and Weatherburn (2015)

On 21 January 2014, the O’Farrell Government announced a new package of measures designed to reduce alcohol-related violence. The package included a controversial new proposal to impose mandatory minimum penalties on people convicted of assault. The proposed mandatory minimum penalties ranged from three years for reckless wounding (Crimes Act 1900 (NSW), s 35(4)) to five years for recklessly inflicting grievous bodily harm in company (s 35(1)) or assaulting and causing grievous bodily harm to a police officer (ss 60(3) and 60(3A)).

Menéndez and Weatherburn (2015) exploited an earlier sentencing reform in NSW (the introduction of standard non-parole periods) in which longer minimum periods in custody for assault offences were announced but never actually carried into effect. They examined trends in assault before and after the introduction of standard non-parole periods and found no evidence that the threat of longer prison terms had any effect on the incidence of assault in NSW.

Menéndez, Tusell and Weatherburn (2015)

Many of the reforms to liquor licensing have occurred too close in time to estimate their separate effects. Menendez et al (2015) used time series structural models to try and estimate the joint effect of all reforms to liquor licensing policy between in 2008 and 2011 over this period. After adjusting for the pre-existing trend in assault and the effects of the Global Financial Crisis they estimated that the reforms to liquor licensing between reduced the number of police-recorded assaults of actual and grievous bodily harm in NSW by 31.3 per cent and 39.7 per cent respectively. They acknowledged, however, that factors other than the legislative reforms (for example, the ‘naming and shaming’ of licensed premises with large numbers of assaults) could have contributed to the downward trend in assaults.

Menéndez, Weatherburn, Kypri and Fitzgerald (2015)

The reforms to liquor licensing law announced on January 2014 (and referred to earlier) included what have since become known as the ‘lockout laws’. The new restrictions included:

1. 1.30 am lockouts at pubs and bars, registered clubs, nightclubs and karaoke bars in two targeted areas (the Kings Cross and CBD entertainment precincts);

2. 3 am cessation of alcohol service in venues in these areas;

3. a freeze on new liquor licences and approvals for existing licences across the two target areas;

4. a ban on takeaway alcohol sales after 10 pm across NSW; and

5. the extension of temporary and long-term banning orders issued to designated ‘trouble-makers’ to prevent them entering most licensed premises in the target areas.

Menéndez et al (2015) conducted a time series analysis of trends in assault before and after the reforms in: (a) Sydney and Kings Cross Entertainment Precincts (the target areas); (b) areas immediately contiguous with those precincts (the proximal displacement area (‘PDA’)); (c) other nearby entertainment areas (the distal displacement areas (‘DDA’)); and (d) the rest of NSW. They found that the lockout laws were followed by substantial reductions in assault in the target areas, but no evidence of any similar change in the PDA or the DDA and only a slight reduction in the rest of NSW. The fall in police-recorded assaults in the target areas has since been confirmed in emergency department admission and ambulance call-out data (Fulde et al 2015; Leung et al 2015).

More recent research (Donnelly et al 2016) has found evidence of a significant increase in assaults at The Star, a casino (just outside the Sydney CBD entertainment precinct), but the increase in that location was much smaller than the overall decrease in Kings Cross and the Sydney CBD precincts.

Conclusion

There is little doubt that liquor licensing law is a powerful tool when it comes to reducing alcohol-related violence. That conclusion is supported not only by the evidence cited above, but by a range of other studies (see, for example, Chikritzhs and Stockwell 2002; Stockwell and Chikritzhs 2009; Douglas 1998; Voas, Lange and Johnson 2002; Voas et al 2006; Dualibi et al 2007; Kypri et al 2011).

However, a number of important empirical questions remain unanswered. Recent evidence suggests that that the consumption of alcohol by young people has been falling since 2008 (Livingston et al 2016). It is not clear whether this reduction in alcohol consumption is related to changing liquor licensing law or more general changes in social attitudes toward alcohol use. To that extent, we cannot be certain that the reduction in assaults since 2008 is a result of government policy intervention. Each round of reforms to liquor licensing policy has included multiple initiatives; the lockout law changes listed above, for example, included at least five separate initiatives. At this stage, there is little information on which initiative, among the multiplicity undertaken since 2008 to reduce alcohol-related violence, has been most effective in reducing the incidence of assault. Finally, some have argued that the lockout laws, while reducing assault, have also had a substantial adverse impact on the night-time economy in Sydney (NSW Legislative Assembly Committee on Law and Justice 2014). At this stage, we have little reliable information on the scale of that adverse effect.

References

Agnew-Pauley W (2014) Reporting Rates of Assaults on Licensed Premises by Licensed Premises Staff, Bureau Brief 99, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research

Chikritzhs TN and Stockwell TR (2002) ‘The Impact of Later Trading Hours for Australian Public Houses (Hotels) on Levels of Violence’, Journal of Studies on Alcohol 63(5), 591–9

Donnelly N (2012) Young Adults’ Experience of Responsible Service of Alcohol in NSW: 2011 Update, Crime and Justice Bulletin 162, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research

Donnelly N, Weatherburn D, Routledge K, Ramsey S and Mahoney N (2016) ‘Did the “Lockout Law” Reforms Increase Assaults at The Star Casino, Pyrmont?’, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Bureau Brief, Issue Paper No 114

Douglas M (1998) ‘Restriction of the Hours of Sale of Alcohol in a Small Community: A Beneficial Impact’, Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 22(6), 714–19

Dualibi S, Ponicki W, Grube J, Pinsky I, Laranjeira R and Raw M (2007) ‘The Effect of Restricting Opening Hours on Alcohol-related Violence’, American Journal of Public Health 97(12), 2276–80

Fulde G, Smith M and Forster SL (2015) ‘Presentations with Alcohol-related Serious Injury to a Major Trauma Hospital after 2014 Changes to Liquor Laws’, The Medical Journal of Australia 203(9),

366–72

Jones C, Kypri K, Moffatt S, Borzycki C and Price B (2009) The Impact of Restricted Alcohol Availability on Alcohol-related Violence in Newcastle, NSW, Crime and Justice Bulletin 137, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research

Kypri K, Jones C, McElduff D and Barker D (2011) ‘Effects of Restricting Pub Closing Times on Night-time Assaults in an Australian City’, Addiction 106(2), 303–10

Kypri K, McElduff P and Miller P (2014) ‘Restrictions in Pub Closing Times and Lockouts in Newcastle, Australia Five Years on’, Drug and Alcohol Review 33(3), 323–6

Leung K, Ringland C, Salmon A, Chessman J and Muscatello D (2015) That’s Entertainment: Trends in Late-night Assaults and Acute Alcohol Illness in Sydney’s Entertainment Precinct, Crime and Justice Bulletin 185, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research

Livingston M, Raninen J, Slade T, Swift W, Lloyd B and Dietze P (2016) ‘Understanding Trends in Australian Alcohol Consumption: An Age, Period and Cohort Model’, Addiction (in press) doi:10.1111/add.13396

Menéndez P and Weatherburn D (2015) ‘Does the Threat of Longer Prison Terms Reduce the Incidence of Assault?’, Australian & New Zealand Journal of Criminology, doi:10.1177/0004865815575397

Menéndez P, Tusell F and Weatherburn D (2015) ‘The Effects of Liquor Licensing Restriction on Alcohol-related Violence in NSW, 2008–13’, Addiction 110(10), 1574–82

Menéndez P, Weatherburn D, Kypri K and Fitzgerald J (2015) Lockouts and Last Drinks: The Impact of the January 2014 Liquor Licence Reforms on Assaults in NSW, Australia, Crime and Justice Bulletin 183, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research

Moffatt S and Weatherburn D (2011) Trends in Assaults after Midnight, Bureau Brief 59, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research

Moffatt S, Mason A, Borzycki C and Weatherburn D (2009) Liquor Licensing Enforcement and Assaults on Licensed Premises, Bureau Brief 40, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research

New South Wales Legislative Assembly Committee on Law and Justice (2014), NSW Legislative Assembly, Measures to Reduce Drug and Alcohol-related Violence: Preliminary Enquiry, Report 4/55

Roth L and Angus C (2015) Liquor Licensing Restrictions to Address Alcohol-related Violence in NSW: 2008 to 2014, NSW Parliamentary Research Service e-brief 2/2015

Snowball L and Spratley S (2013) Is the Decrease in Assaults at Licensed Premises being Driven by Changes in Staff Reporting Rates, Bureau Brief 87, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research

Stockwell T and Chikritzhs T (2009) ‘Do Relaxed Trading Hours for Bars and Clubs Mean More Relaxed Drinking? A Review of International Research on the Impacts of Changes to Permitted Hours of Drinking’, Crime Prevention and Community Safety 11, 153–70

Voas RB, Lange JE and Johnson MB (2002) ‘Reducing High-Risk Drinking by Young Americans South of the Border: The Impact of a Partial Ban on the Sale of Alcohol’, Journal of Studies in Alcohol 63(3), 286–92

Voas RB, Romano E, Kelly-Baker T and Tippetts AS (2006) ‘A Partial Ban on Sales to Reduce High-Risk Drinking South of the Border: Seven Years Later’, Journal of Studies in Alcohol 67(5), 746–53


[*] Director, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, PO Box 31, Sydney NSW 2000 Australia. Email: don.weatherburn@justice.nsw.gov.au.


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